In short
Crop conditions across Europe remain generally favourable, with winter crops developing well overall. Spring sowing campaigns are nearing completion in many regions, but cool and wet conditions have delayed field operations and early crop development in south-eastern Europe and Türkiye.
Late frost events may have affected rapeseed locally in parts of central and eastern Europe. Insufficient rainfall in April in central, eastern and northern Europe slowed down biomass accumulation. However, recent and upcoming cooler and wetter weather in central and south-eastern Europe may replenish soil moisture and improve crop development. Yield forecasts have been slightly reduced this month to account for these limiting conditions, but they still remain largely in line with or above the five-year average.
This edition includes an extended analysis of the Maghreb, where continued above-average rainfall and favourable reservoir levels have supported exceptionally positive growing conditions and strong yield prospects, especially in Morocco and Algeria.
Areas of concern
The main concerns relate to persistent rainfall deficits in central, eastern and northern Europe and to late frosts locally affecting rapeseed. In parts of south-eastern Europe and Türkiye, cool and wet conditions have delayed spring sowing.
Persistent rainfall deficits raise concerns in central, eastern and northern Europe
Rainfall deficits have persisted in several regions, leading to declining soil moisture levels. Although recent rainfall helped to improve conditions in some areas, concerns remain in areas where soil moisture deficits have accumulated since early spring.
- Western France: Persistent dry and warm weather progressively reduced soil moisture until abundant rainfall in May restored it, sustaining crop growth.
- Northern and central Italy: Above-average temperatures combined with limited precipitation depleted topsoil moisture. In northern regions, early irrigation was required locally to support the germination and early development of summer crops.
- South-eastern and south-western Germany, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary: Below-average precipitation since March has depleted soil moisture and raised concerns about emerging water stress. Recent rainfall brought partial relief, and more is forecast in some regions, but crop conditions still require monitoring.
- Eastern Poland and southern Sweden: Prolonged dry conditions have increasingly depleted soil moisture reserves. Additional rainfall will be needed as winter crops enter their reproductive stages.
- Western Ukraine: Persistent rainfall deficits following several months of below-average precipitation continue to worsen soil moisture conditions.
Late frost events may affect rapeseed in central and eastern Europe
Cold spells in late April and early May brought minimum temperatures locally below –5 °C and affected crops during sensitive development stages.
- Poland, Czechia and Lithuania: Frost events that occurred during rapeseed flowering reduced flower numbers and fertility. Yield expectations for rapeseed and winter crops have dropped below the five-year average in several regions, although some recovery remains possible.
- Hungary, eastern Slovakia and western Romania: Local frost damage was reported following frost events in April and early May, particularly affecting rapeseed.
Cool and wet conditions delay spring sowing in south-eastern Europe and Türkiye
- Eastern Romania and Bulgaria: Cool and wet conditions have delayed sowing operations for maize and sunflowers. Delayed crop development may increase vulnerability to summer heat and water stress later in the season.
- Türkiye: Cool and wet spring conditions have delayed crop development, notably in central regions.
Unfavourable growth in northern Spain
Dry conditions in northern Spain in autumn and early winter delayed the sowing of winter crops and negatively affected crop emergence. Despite favourable spring weather, winter crops continue to show suboptimal biomass accumulation, with limited recovery potential as flowering is already under way.
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Further agricultural information
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For comprehensive agricultural insights for Europe, explore the JRC AGRI4CAST website, which offers a wealth of information, tools, data and tutorials, including:
- JRC MARS Bulletins: Receive monthly analyses on crop growth conditions and yield forecasts for the EU and neighbouring countries.
- JRC MARS Atlas: Provides a comprehensive set of up-to-date agro-weather and crop-related indicators to monitor agricultural conditions across Europe.
- AGRI4CAST Resources Portal: Utilise freely available datasets and software developed by AGRI4CAST for public use.
- JRC MARS System Wiki: Wiki of the JRC MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS), providing background information on the technical JRC platform used for crop monitoring and European yield forecasting in support of the EU CAP.
- Crop Forecasting Videos: Engage with an educational collection of videos that provide an overview of crop monitoring and yield forecasting activities.
For global agricultural insights, visit the JRC Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) website to access the latest information on global agricultural production hotspots in countries at risk of food insecurity.
