Europe’s security landscape is evolving rapidly. Hostile governments and non-state actors are increasingly working to undermine our democratic societies. From disinformation in times of elections to cyberattacks against public administration, assassination attempts and the use of unmanned vehicles, hybrid warfare is a day-to-day challenge with a rise in the volume, timing and intensity of hostile operations.
A new study by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) presents a strategy for responding to this escalation of hybrid threats, which pose an existential challenge to the EU and our democracy.
This innovative resilience-deterrence strategy is structured around common actions by EU governments and international partners to counter hybrid threats and protect our democracies. It is based on three steps:
- proactive anticipation,
- active defence, and
- reactive retaliation.
The strategy is supported by concrete proposals for operational measures to strengthen the resilience of European societies and suggests innovative countermeasures for deterrence against hostile actors in all domains.
Three steps to prevent hybrid threats
The first step aims to prevent future hybrid threat operations while simultaneously preparing for them. The report introduces the concept of deterrence to the strategy against hybrid warfare and presents several approaches to tailor solutions. It also advocates for improving resilience in governance, civic spaces, and services. Deterrence and resilience should be intertwined: if a hybrid threat operation occurs despite deterrence efforts, authorities must be ready to react.
This is the second step proposed by the strategy: detecting attacks, identifying the actors and determining the strategy behind hybrid operations. This requires improving indicators, enhancing intelligence sharing, and increasing comprehensive analysis capabilities. The report also emphasises that strong attribution is key, in order for decision-makers to legitimise retaliation.
The third step strengthens deterrence by increasing the cost of hybrid operations. Similarly to the first two steps, reactive retaliation is more impactful when Member States and EU institutions act together.
From strategy to practice
The main findings of the report support the European Commission’s proposal for an Emergency Security Protocol and a counter-Hybrid threats playbook, which would centralise EU efforts to collectively counter hybrid threat operations.
The proposed strategy is adaptable to different threat landscapes, situations, and democratic systems, and can be applied at all layers of governance, whether local, national, or international.
The report also proposes instruments to implement the strategy. These instruments capitalise on existing EU and Member State initiatives and multiple innovative proposals to increase capacities to counter hybrid threat operations.
