In its latest report Summer Outlook 2026, published today, the European Network for Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) confirms that it does not foresee general risks to the security of electricity supply across most of the EU for the coming summer. Potential issues were only identified in a small number of markets with limited interconnection to the EU grid, requiring continued monitoring, particularly during periods of high electricity demand and low generation availability. As required under the EU Risk Preparedness Regulation (EU/2019/941), this ENTSO-E report is based on a range of simulations assessing different resources and scenarios, with the results confirming robust adequacy overall. It will feed into the Commission’s close analysis of the market situation.
The main findings of the report include
- installed renewable capacities, particularly solar, have increased significantly (by more than 90 GW) compared to last summer. Installed battery capacities have doubled over the same period
- by contrast, the availability of thermal capacities has decreased, primarily due to reductions in both coal- and gas-fired generation capacities (combined -12 GW)
- planned unavailability of most thermal generation capacities during the summer follows a regular pattern
- available hydro levels are expected to be lower than last summer, while remaining in line with the usual seasonal pattern across the EU
- a slight increase is expected in both overall demand as well as peak demand for electricity, compared to the last summer
The report underlines the importance of continuous monitoring of the short-term adequacy situation by European transmission system operators and regional coordination centres. It also emphasises that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase uncertainty regarding global and European energy security of supply of oil and natural gas, underscoring the need to monitor and assess potential impacts.
The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a review of last winter (2025/2026), which confirms that, overall, no adequacy issues were observed.
