Falling birth rates have set EU population numbers on a course of gradual decline as of 2026, according to EU and UN projections. The trend will have a similar effect on the EU labour force: if participation rates for each age and sex group remain constant at the average level observed between 2011 and 2022, the labour force will shrink by 20.2 percentage points by 2070. This is equivalent to around 42.8 million fewer people in the labour force.
JRC scientists expand this static picture by adopting a forward-looking and dynamic perspective, combining labour force participation rates with demographic projections between 2021 and 2070. The analysis unveils a great potential in activating the workforce potential of different population subgroups.
Compared to the static scenario, women’s empowerment and greater participation – converging towards that of men – in the EU job market would almost halve the effects of ageing population. As result, the labour force would decline to a lesser extent, by 11 percentage points (23.2 m people) by 2070. In a similar manner, with educational growth, the workforce would decline by 15.6 percentage points (33.2 m people).
The findings suggest that if all EU countries were able to increase labour force participation of all socio demographic groups to the levels observed in Sweden, this could significantly mitigate the decline in the EU workforce linked to ageing.
The Swedish way
In comparison to all other EU countries, Sweden provides a model for achieving high workforce participation and education rates. The country’s workforce aged 15-64 grew from 82% to 84% between 2014 and 2024, with over 40% of the population holding a tertiary education degree. Furthermore, Sweden stands out for its high female labour force participation rate, which reaches 80%, substantially higher than the EU average of 67%.
If all EU countries adopted the Swedish advanced level of labour participation of each population subgroup by age, sex and education, the projected workforce across the EU would decline by only 2.8 percentage points, corresponding to 5.9 million people by 2070.
The effect of migration
Of all analysed scenarios, a labour force without managed migration of skilled workers from outside the EU will result in the largest drop of 26.7 pp, or 55.9 million people by 2070. JRC researchers highlight that migration can play a crucial role in shaping the EU’s labour market over the coming decades, particularly if migrants are successfully employed and integrated into the workforce.
In complementarity with activation of inactive persons or underrepresented groups, upskilling, reskilling and improving working conditions, the EU can benefit from attracting skilled workers from outside the EU, as well as promoting intra-EU mobility, to address labour shortages in certain sectors and regions, as per the Commission’s Action plan on labour and skills shortages.
By understanding the demographic trends and their implications for the labour market, the EU can implement strategies to increase labour force participation, legal migration pathways and investment in education and training, ultimately benefiting citizens and the economy.
EU demographic outlook and the role of migration
The EU population is expected to peak at 453 million people around 2026 before a gradual decline starts, driven by low fertility rates, which have been below the natural replacement level of 2.1 births per woman since the 1970s. Without migration from countries outside the EU, the EU population would have started to decline already about a decade ago.
Low birth rates and age structure are the driving forces behind a projected 5% population decline over the period 2023-2050, according to a JRC analysis. The two factors account for a projected 14% drop of the EU population by 2050, but longer life expectancy and population gain from migration partly offset the losses for a combined 9% growth. Migration from countries outside the EU and higher involvement of women in the labour market are necessary to mitigate the population decline.
Demographic drivers differ widely across different EU countries. Central and Eastern European countries are projected to see the largest population decline, due to a combination of low birth rates, migration patterns and the effect of current population structure, shaped by past (falling) demographic trends.
In Southern European countries, population decline is driven primarily by low birth rates, sometimes as low as 1.3 per woman. Low fertility is the main factor for a projected decline of around a 10% in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta and Greece.
Due to higher immigration levels and lower mortality rates, France, Germany and the Netherlands may face a more moderate population changes.
The population of migrant talent will continue to increase, representing the strongest driver of population growth due to higher birth rates, while Sweden, Luxembourg and Ireland – for example – will additionally benefit from having had higher birth rates until recently, i.e. from a positive so-called population momentum.
Related content
A Demographic Perspective on the Future of European Labour Force Participation
The Role of Migration and Fertility for the Future Size of the EU’s Population
