In its latest report Summer Outlook 2025, published today, the European Network for Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) confirms that there are no general risks to the security of electricity supply in most of the EU for the coming summer. The potential issues that were identified are limited to some markets with limited interconnection to the EU grid, requiring monitoring, specifically in periods of high electricity demand and low generation availability. As required under the EU Risk Preparedness Regulation (EU/2019/941), this ENTSO-E report is based on various simulations looking at different resources – and the results recorded robust adequacy overall.
The main findings of the report include
- Installed renewable capacities, especially solar, have increased significantly (+90 GW) compared to last summer.
- At the same time thermal capacities have decreased, primarily due to reduced coal and lignite use, whereas gas capacities have increased.
- The planned unavailability of certain thermal generation capacities fits the usual seasonal pattern during the summer.
- During certain periods renewable generation is expected to exceed demand and export possibilities, calling for careful management and strategic planning.
The report recalls that the EU has been supporting Ukraine and Moldova since the start of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. In March 2022, the electricity grid of both countries was successfully connected to that of Continental Europe. Solidarity preparedness remains vital due to uncertainties from potential attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine. As of May 2025, European transmission system operators enable an electricity export capacity to Ukraine and Moldova of 1.7 GW, while the electricity import from Ukraine and Moldova has been increased to 650 MW.
The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of the previous winter (2024/2025), which confirms that, in general, no adequacy issues were observed.
