In short
Persistent heat and exceptional water deficits have substantially worsened summer crop prospects across western and most of central Europe, reducing fertility and biomass accumulation, impairing grain filling and accelerating senescence. Impacts range from moderate yield reductions to severe losses, with crop failure likely in the worst-affected regions. Grassland productivity and pasture availability have also declined markedly, raising concerns about fodder supply. Although summer crop conditions remain more favourable in parts of northern and eastern Europe, EU yield forecasts for all summer crops have been sharply reduced, falling below the five-year average by up to 14 % (up-to-date forecast map for grain maize below; for other crops consult the latest JRC MARS Bulletin).
With harvesting largely completed, yield prospects for most winter cereals have been confirmed around the five-year average at the EU level.
Cooler and wetter conditions forecast across much of western and central Europe may provide some relief, although too late to compensate for the losses already sustained.
Areas of concern
Persistent heat and exceptional water deficits affected crops across western and central Europe. Impacts are widespread, particularly on summer crops, and range from moderate yield reductions to severe losses.
Severe impacts
From heat stress and water deficit
- France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and western Romania: High temperatures combined with insufficient rainfall strongly affected summer crops, particularly during flowering and yield formation. Impacts include reduced fertility and biomass accumulation, poor grain filling and premature senescence. Limited availability of irrigation water and restrictions on its use further aggravated crop stress in several regions. Impacts in western France, northern and central Italy, south-western Germany, southern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and western Romania were already reported in the July bulletin and have since intensified. Yields will be significantly reduced, and crop failure is likely locally in these regions.
Moderate impacts
From heat stress and water deficit
- Benelux countries, Slovenia and Croatia. Hot and dry conditions intensified from late June onwards, affecting summer crops during critical development stages. Yield expectations have been reduced, particularly for maize, with locally more substantial impacts where irrigation is unavailable.
Alerts
From dry conditions
- Southern Ireland, northern Germany and Denmark: Low levels of soil moisture have followed below-average rainfall; no significant crop impacts have been detected yet, but summer crops may be affected if dry conditions persist.
- Southern Poland, western Ukraine and western Bulgaria: Persistent soil moisture deficits locally affected summer crops. Impacts remain limited at the national level due to more favourable conditions in other regions of the countries.
From heat stress
- Northern Spain and southern Türkiye: Locally very high temperatures were recorded, so far with only limited effects on crop conditions.
Previously reported impacts on winter crops
- Spain, France, Germany, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine: Adverse conditions earlier in the season had already reduced yield expectations. Subsequent heatwaves accelerated ripening and harvesting in several regions; these impacts were reported in previous bulletin editions.
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Further agricultural information
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For comprehensive agricultural insights for Europe, explore the JRC AGRI4CAST website, which offers a wealth of information, tools, data and tutorials, including:
- JRC MARS Bulletins: Receive monthly analyses on crop growth conditions and yield forecasts for the EU and neighbouring countries.
- JRC MARS Atlas: Provides a comprehensive set of up-to-date agro-weather and crop-related indicators to monitor agricultural conditions across Europe.
- AGRI4CAST Resources Portal: Utilise freely available datasets and software developed by AGRI4CAST for public use.
- JRC MARS System Wiki: Wiki of the JRC MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS), providing background information on the technical JRC platform used for crop monitoring and European yield forecasting in support of the EU CAP.
- Crop Forecasting Videos: Engage with an educational collection of videos that provide an overview of crop monitoring and yield forecasting activities.
For global agricultural insights, visit the JRC Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP) website to access the latest information on global agricultural production hotspots in countries at risk of food insecurity.
